The probability of qualifying for the Paris 2024

I created a Monte Carlo simulation to predict which athletes are going to qualify for Paris 2024 after the first competition in Shanghai. It’s just simple simulation that generates million of random results and calculates the probability out of them.

Boulder & Lead

There are 12 places in total. I applied country quotas, a host nation place for French men and universality place for Iceland’s Svana Bjarnason (both have to be ranked 36th or better).

Men

#	Name	NOC	Quota	Shanghai rank	Probability
1	Dohyun LEE	KOR	2	1	98,1%
2	Alberto GINÉS LÓPEZ	ESP	2	2	84,3%
3	Adam ONDRA	CZE	2	3	71,6%
4	Sascha LEHMANN	SUI	2	5	60,3%
5	Hannes VAN DUYSEN	BEL	2	6	57,2%
6	Hamish MCARTHUR	GBR	1	7	53,9%
7	Yannick FLOHÉ	GER	2	9	50,3%
8	Nicolas COLLIN	BEL	2	11	46,4%
9	Alexander MEGOS	GER	2	12	43,6%
10	Yufei PAN	CHN	2	13	43,0%
11	Paul JENFT	FRA	2	4	41,4%
12	Anze PEHARC	SLO	2	14	40,4%
13	Luka POTOCAR	SLO	2	15	38,2%
14	Filip SCHENK	ITA	2	17	34,3%
15	Nicolai UZNIK	AUT	1	16	31,1%
16	Stefano GHISOLFI	ITA	2	19	30,0%
17	Hannes PUMAN	SWE	2	20	28,0%
18	Sam AVEZOU	FRA	2	8	27,9%
19	Stefan SCHERZ	AUT	1	18	26,2%
20	Mejdi SCHALCK	FRA	2	10	23,5%
21	Yannick NAGEL	GER	2	21	23,2%
22	Jongwon CHON	KOR	2	22	23,0%
23	Jonas UTELLI	SUI	2	23	21,5%
24	Nimrod MARCUS	ISR	2	24	19,3%
25	Nikolay RUSEV	BUL	2	26	15,3%
26	Simon LORENZI	BEL	2	25	14,9%
27	Yuval SHEMLA	ISR	2	27	13,3%
28	Ravianto RAMADHAN	INA	2	29	10,1%
29	Zan LOVENJAK SUDAR	SLO	2	30	8,2%
30	Jack MACDOUGALL	GBR	1	28	6,9%
31	Yunchan SONG	KOR	2	31	6,8%
32	Sean MCCOLL	CAN	2	32	6,7%
33	Martin STRANIK	CZE	2	33	5,9%
34	Raviandi RAMADHAN	INA	2	34	5,2%
35	Martin BERGANT	SLO	2	35	4,2%
36	Marcello BOMBARDI	ITA	2	36	3,9%
37	Oscar BAUDRAND	CAN	2	37	3,5%
38	Edvards GRUZITIS	LAT	2	39	2,7%
39	Alex KHAZANOV	ISR	2	41	2,2%
40	Dylan PARKS	AUS	1	43	2,2%
41	Nimrod TUSNADY	HUN	2	44	2,2%
42	Geva LEVIN	ISR	2	46	2,2%
43	Giorgio TOMATIS	ITA	2	45	2,1%
44	Christopher COSSER	RSA	1	47	1,8%
45	Maximillian MILNE	GBR	1	38	1,5%
46	James POPE	GBR	1	40	1,1%
47	Jan-Luca POSCH	AUT	1	48	0,9%
48	Mickael MAWEM	FRA	2	42	0,3%

Probability of Countries Qualifying for the Olympics

I’ve also run the same simulation for probability of Country qualifying as well as the probability of qualifying one or two athletes.

Country	Country Probability	One Climber	Two Climbers
Australia	2,2%	2,2%	0,0%	*
Austria	58,3%	58,3%	0,0%	*
Belgium	83,3%	48,0%	35,2%
Bulgaria	15,2%	15,2%	0,0%
Canada	10,0%	9,9%	0,2%
China	43,0%	43,0%	0,0%
Czechia	73,3%	69,3%	4,0%
Spain	84,3%	84,3%	0,0%
France	93,1%	33,8%	59,3%
Great Britain	63,4%	63,4%	0,0%	*
Germany	82,0%	46,7%	35,3%
Hungary	2,2%	2,2%	0,0%
Indonesia	14,9%	14,5%	0,4%
Israel	33,8%	30,5%	3,3%
Italy	58,2%	46,2%	12,0%
South Korea	98,8%	69,7%	29,1%
Latvia	2,7%	2,7%	0,0%
South Africa	1,8%	1,8%	0,0%	*
Slovenia	70,1%	49,1%	21,0%
Switzerland	69,5%	57,4%	12,2%
Sweden	27,9%	27,9%	0,0%

* already qualified one athlete previously

Women

#	Name	NOC	Quota	Shanghai rank	Probability
1	Chaehyun SEO	KOR	2	2	92,2%
2	Brooke RABOUTOU	USA	1	1	86,1%
3	Erin MCNEICE	GBR	2	3	82,8%
4	Ievgeniia KAZBEKOVA	UKR	2	6	65,5%
5	Zhilu LUO	CHN	1	7	63,2%
6	Camilla MORONI	ITA	2	9	58,4%
7	Lucia DÖRFFEL	GER	2	10	56,5%
8	Jain KIM	KOR	2	11	50,8%
9	Molly THOMPSON-SMITH	GBR	2	13	50,1%
10	Miho NONAKA	JPN	1	4	45,1%
11	Franziska STERRER	AUT	1	16	43,6%
12	Laura ROGORA	ITA	2	17	40,8%
13	Zélia AVEZOU	FRA	1	8	40,4%
14	Mia KRAMPL	SLO	1	12	39,8%
15	Futaba ITO	JPN	1	5	38,9%
16	Michaela SMETANOVA	CZE	2	22	30,5%
17	Stasa GEJO	SRB	2	23	28,3%
18	Lucija TARKUS	SLO	1	18	24,3%
19	Chloe CAULIER	BEL	2	25	24,0%
20	Manon HILY	FRA	1	15	22,7%
21	Hannah MEUL	GER	2	27	19,5%
22	Maya STASIUK	AUS	1	28	17,6%
23	Petra KLINGLER	SUI	2	29	15,7%
24	Fanny GIBERT	FRA	1	19	15,4%
25	Yejoo SEO	KOR	2	26	15,2%
26	Elnaz REKABI	IRI	2	30	13,8%
27	Vita LUKAN	SLO	1	24	13,1%
28	Hélène JANICOT	FRA	1	21	12,5%
29	Anastasia SANDERS	USA	1	14	12,4%
30	Ryu NAKAGAWA	JPN	1	20	9,8%
31	Giorgia TESIO	ITA	2	32	9,4%
32	Martina BURŠÍKOVÁ	SVK	2	35	7,0%
33	Ayala KEREM	ISR	2	36	6,1%
34	Sol SA	KOR	2	34	5,1%
35	Maria AGUADO	ARG	2	38	4,8%
36	Sandra HOPFENSITZ	GER	2	39	4,0%
37	Sara COPAR	SLO	1	33	3,8%
38	Aleksandra TOTKOVA	BUL	2	42	3,7%
39	Tegwen OATES	RSA	1	48	3,6%
40	Noa SHIRAN	ISR	2	43	3,6%
41	Eliska ADAMOVSKA	CZE	2	46	3,6%
42	Lynn VAN DER MEER	NED	2	40	3,6%
43	Svana BJARNASON	ISL	2	47	3,6%
44	Alannah YIP	CAN	2	41	3,6%
45	Roxana WIENAND	GER	2	45	3,5%
46	Kylie CULLEN	USA	1	31	1,0%
47	Nonoha KUME	JPN	1	44	0,4%
48	Kyra CONDIE	USA	1	37	0,3%

Probability of Countries Qualifying for the Olympics

Country	Country Probability	One Climber	Two Climbers
Argentina	4,8%	4,8%	0,0%
Australia	17,7%	17,7%	0,0%	*
Austria	43,6%	43,6%	0,0%	*
Belgium	24,0%	24,0%	0,0%
Bulgaria	3,6%	3,6%	0,0%
Canada	3,6%	3,6%	0,0%
China	63,2%	63,2%	0,0%	*
Czechia	33,2%	32,2%	0,9%
France	91,1%	91,1%	0,0%	*
Great Britain	92,6%	52,3%	40,3%
Germany	69,2%	54,9%	14,3%
Iran	13,8%	13,8%	0,0%
Iceland	3,6%	3,6%	0,0%
Israel	9,6%	9,5%	0,1%
Italy	80,2%	51,7%	28,4%
Japan	94,2%	94,2%	0,0%	*
South Korea	98,7%	34,1%	64,6%
Netherlands	3,6%	3,6%	0,0%
South Africa	3,6%	3,6%	0,0%	*
Slovenia	80,9%	80,9%	0,0%	*
Serbia	28,3%	28,3%	0,0%
Switzerland	15,7%	15,7%	0,0%
Slovakia	7,0%	7,0%	0,0%
Ukraine	65,5%	65,5%	0,0%
United States	99,9%	99,9%	0,0%	*

* already qualified one athlete previously

Speed

For the Speed there are 7 remaining spaces (14 total, 2 were awarded at the World Championships and 5 at the Continental Qualifiers). French men already used the Host Country Place, but women’s is still for grabs (they have to be 24th or better). There are no eligible athletes for universality place.

Men

#	Name	NOC	Quota	Shanghai rank	Probability
1	Yaroslav TKACH	UKR	2	4	69,3%
2	Veddriq LEONARDO	INA	1	1	69,1%
3	Reza ALIPOUR SHENAZANDIFARD	IRI	2	6	59,2%
4	Zachary HAMMER	USA	1	7	54,5%
5	Peng WU	CHN	1	2	49,9%
6	Amir MAIMURATOV	KAZ	2	11	42,4%
7	Euncheol SHIN	KOR	2	12	39,0%
8	Xinshang WANG	CHN	1	3	32,6%
9	Ryo OMASA	JPN	2	14	32,3%
10	Erik NOYA CARDONA	ESP	2	15	29,0%
11	Hryhorii ILCHYSHYN	UKR	2	16	25,8%
12	Guillaume MORO	FRA	1	17	21,9%
13	Carlos GRANJA LOPEZ	ECU	2	18	19,9%
14	Gian Luca ZODDA	ITA	1	19	15,9%
15	Kiromal KATIBIN	INA	1	5	14,2%
16	Ludovico FOSSALI	ITA	1	20	13,8%
17	Sebastian LUCKE	GER	2	21	13,0%
18	Leander CARMANNS	GER	2	22	11,4%
19	Jianguo LONG	CHN	1	9	10,5%
20	Isaac ESTEVEZ VALLEJO	ECU	2	23	10,0%
21	Aspar ASPAR	INA	1	8	9,4%
22	Pierre REBREYEND	FRA	1	24	8,0%
23	Marcin DZIENSKI	POL	2	25	7,8%
24	Raharjati NURSAMSA	INA	1	10	7,0%
25	Yongjun JUNG	KOR	2	26	6,8%
26	Liang ZHANG	CHN	1	13	5,9%
27	Alessandro BOULOS	ITA	1	28	4,6%
28	Jun YASUKAWA	JPN	2	29	4,6%
29	Hayden BARTON	AUS	2	30	3,9%
30	Noah BRATSCHI	USA	1	27	3,8%
31	Rishat KHAIBULLIN	KAZ	2	32	2,7%
32	John BROSLER	USA	1	31	1,9%

Probability of Countries Qualifying for the Olympics

Country	Country Probability	One Climber	Two Climbers
Australia	3,9%	3,9%	0,0%
China	98,9%	98,9%	0,0%	*
Ecuador	28,4%	26,9%	1,5%
Spain	29,0%	29,0%	0,0%
France	29,9%	29,9%	0,0%	*
Germany	23,4%	22,4%	1,0%
Indonesia	99,8%	99,8%	0,0%	*
Iran	59,2%	59,2%	0,0%
Italy	34,2%	34,2%	0,0%	*
Japan	35,6%	34,4%	1,2%
Kazakhstan	44,1%	43,1%	0,9%
South Korea	43,6%	41,4%	2,2%
Poland	7,8%	7,8%	0,0%
Ukraine	78,7%	62,4%	16,4%
United States	60,1%	60,1%	0,0%	*

* already qualified one athlete previously

Women

#	Name	NOC	Quota	Shanghai rank	Probability
1	Yafei ZHOU	CHN	2	1	89,6%
2	Rajiah SALLSABILLAH	INA	1	2	66,6%
3	Natalia KALUCKA	POL	1	3	53,6%
4	Jimin JEONG	KOR	2	6	51,7%
5	Capucine VIGLIONE	FRA	2	7	47,7%
6	Di NIU	CHN	2	4	47,2%
7	Beatrice COLLI	ITA	2	11	34,8%
8	Aleksandra KALUCKA	POL	1	5	31,7%
9	Leslie Adriana ROMERO PÉREZ	ESP	2	12	31,4%
10	Shengyan WANG	CHN	2	9	25,4%
11	Lison GAUTRON	FRA	2	14	24,1%
12	Shaoqin ZHANG	CHN	2	10	22,5%
13	Manon LEBON	FRA	2	15	21,1%
14	Giulia RANDI	ITA	2	16	19,1%
15	Narda Mutia AMANDA	INA	1	8	18,0%
16	Franziska RITTER	GER	2	17	16,6%
17	Carla MARTÍNEZ VIDAL	ESP	2	18	14,4%
18	Andrea ROJAS TELLO	ECU	2	19	12,5%
19	Mahya DARABIAN	IRI	2	20	10,9%
20	Nurul IQAMAH	INA	1	13	8,9%
21	Tamara ULZHABAYEVA	KAZ	2	22	8,5%
22	Victoire ANDRIER	FRA	2	23	7,1%
23	Karin HAYASHI	JPN	2	24	6,6%
24	Hanareum SUNG	KOR	2	25	5,8%
25	Ai TAKEUCHI	JPN	2	26	5,1%
26	Heeju NOH	KOR	2	27	4,4%
27	Fumika KAWAKAMI	JPN	2	28	3,7%
28	Anna BROZEK	POL	1	21	3,2%
29	Natsumi HAYASHI	JPN	2	29	3,1%
30	Grace CROWLEY	AUS	2	30	2,6%
31	Tegwen OATES	RSA	1	31	2,0%
32	Patrycja CHUDZIAK	POL	1	32	0,2%

Probability of Countries Qualifying for the Olympics

Country	Country Probability	One Climber	Two Climbers
Australia	2,5%	2,5%	0,0%
China	99,7%	14,7%	85,0%	*
Ecuador	12,5%	12,5%	0,0%
Spain	42,3%	38,9%	3,5%
France	75,9%	51,9%	24,1%
Germany	16,6%	16,6%	0,0%
Indonesia	93,5%	93,5%	0,0%	*
Iran	10,9%	10,9%	0,0%
Italy	48,7%	43,5%	5,2%
Japan	18,0%	17,5%	0,5%
Kazakhstan	8,5%	8,5%	0,0%
South Korea	57,4%	52,9%	4,5%
Poland	88,7%	88,7%	0,0%	*
South Africa	2,0%	2,0%	0,0%	*

* already qualified one athlete previously