I created a Monte Carlo simulation to predict which athletes are going to qualify for Paris 2024 after the first competition in Shanghai. It’s just simple simulation that generates million of random results and calculates the probability out of them.
Boulder & Lead
There are 12 places in total. I applied country quotas, a host nation place for French men and universality place for Iceland’s Svana Bjarnason (both have to be ranked 36th or better).
Men
# | Name | NOC | Quota | Shanghai rank | Probability |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dohyun LEE | KOR | 2 | 1 | 98,1% |
2 | Alberto GINÉS LÓPEZ | ESP | 2 | 2 | 84,3% |
3 | Adam ONDRA | CZE | 2 | 3 | 71,6% |
4 | Sascha LEHMANN | SUI | 2 | 5 | 60,3% |
5 | Hannes VAN DUYSEN | BEL | 2 | 6 | 57,2% |
6 | Hamish MCARTHUR | GBR | 1 | 7 | 53,9% |
7 | Yannick FLOHÉ | GER | 2 | 9 | 50,3% |
8 | Nicolas COLLIN | BEL | 2 | 11 | 46,4% |
9 | Alexander MEGOS | GER | 2 | 12 | 43,6% |
10 | Yufei PAN | CHN | 2 | 13 | 43,0% |
11 | Paul JENFT | FRA | 2 | 4 | 41,4% |
12 | Anze PEHARC | SLO | 2 | 14 | 40,4% |
13 | Luka POTOCAR | SLO | 2 | 15 | 38,2% |
14 | Filip SCHENK | ITA | 2 | 17 | 34,3% |
15 | Nicolai UZNIK | AUT | 1 | 16 | 31,1% |
16 | Stefano GHISOLFI | ITA | 2 | 19 | 30,0% |
17 | Hannes PUMAN | SWE | 2 | 20 | 28,0% |
18 | Sam AVEZOU | FRA | 2 | 8 | 27,9% |
19 | Stefan SCHERZ | AUT | 1 | 18 | 26,2% |
20 | Mejdi SCHALCK | FRA | 2 | 10 | 23,5% |
21 | Yannick NAGEL | GER | 2 | 21 | 23,2% |
22 | Jongwon CHON | KOR | 2 | 22 | 23,0% |
23 | Jonas UTELLI | SUI | 2 | 23 | 21,5% |
24 | Nimrod MARCUS | ISR | 2 | 24 | 19,3% |
25 | Nikolay RUSEV | BUL | 2 | 26 | 15,3% |
26 | Simon LORENZI | BEL | 2 | 25 | 14,9% |
27 | Yuval SHEMLA | ISR | 2 | 27 | 13,3% |
28 | Ravianto RAMADHAN | INA | 2 | 29 | 10,1% |
29 | Zan LOVENJAK SUDAR | SLO | 2 | 30 | 8,2% |
30 | Jack MACDOUGALL | GBR | 1 | 28 | 6,9% |
31 | Yunchan SONG | KOR | 2 | 31 | 6,8% |
32 | Sean MCCOLL | CAN | 2 | 32 | 6,7% |
33 | Martin STRANIK | CZE | 2 | 33 | 5,9% |
34 | Raviandi RAMADHAN | INA | 2 | 34 | 5,2% |
35 | Martin BERGANT | SLO | 2 | 35 | 4,2% |
36 | Marcello BOMBARDI | ITA | 2 | 36 | 3,9% |
37 | Oscar BAUDRAND | CAN | 2 | 37 | 3,5% |
38 | Edvards GRUZITIS | LAT | 2 | 39 | 2,7% |
39 | Alex KHAZANOV | ISR | 2 | 41 | 2,2% |
40 | Dylan PARKS | AUS | 1 | 43 | 2,2% |
41 | Nimrod TUSNADY | HUN | 2 | 44 | 2,2% |
42 | Geva LEVIN | ISR | 2 | 46 | 2,2% |
43 | Giorgio TOMATIS | ITA | 2 | 45 | 2,1% |
44 | Christopher COSSER | RSA | 1 | 47 | 1,8% |
45 | Maximillian MILNE | GBR | 1 | 38 | 1,5% |
46 | James POPE | GBR | 1 | 40 | 1,1% |
47 | Jan-Luca POSCH | AUT | 1 | 48 | 0,9% |
48 | Mickael MAWEM | FRA | 2 | 42 | 0,3% |
Probability of Countries Qualifying for the Olympics
I’ve also run the same simulation for probability of Country qualifying as well as the probability of qualifying one or two athletes.
Country | Country Probability | One Climber | Two Climbers | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Australia | 2,2% | 2,2% | 0,0% | * | |
Austria | 58,3% | 58,3% | 0,0% | * | |
Belgium | 83,3% | 48,0% | 35,2% | ||
Bulgaria | 15,2% | 15,2% | 0,0% | ||
Canada | 10,0% | 9,9% | 0,2% | ||
China | 43,0% | 43,0% | 0,0% | ||
Czechia | 73,3% | 69,3% | 4,0% | ||
Spain | 84,3% | 84,3% | 0,0% | ||
France | 93,1% | 33,8% | 59,3% | ||
Great Britain | 63,4% | 63,4% | 0,0% | * | |
Germany | 82,0% | 46,7% | 35,3% | ||
Hungary | 2,2% | 2,2% | 0,0% | ||
Indonesia | 14,9% | 14,5% | 0,4% | ||
Israel | 33,8% | 30,5% | 3,3% | ||
Italy | 58,2% | 46,2% | 12,0% | ||
South Korea | 98,8% | 69,7% | 29,1% | ||
Latvia | 2,7% | 2,7% | 0,0% | ||
South Africa | 1,8% | 1,8% | 0,0% | * | |
Slovenia | 70,1% | 49,1% | 21,0% | ||
Switzerland | 69,5% | 57,4% | 12,2% | ||
Sweden | 27,9% | 27,9% | 0,0% |
* already qualified one athlete previously
Women
# | Name | NOC | Quota | Shanghai rank | Probability |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chaehyun SEO | KOR | 2 | 2 | 92,2% |
2 | Brooke RABOUTOU | USA | 1 | 1 | 86,1% |
3 | Erin MCNEICE | GBR | 2 | 3 | 82,8% |
4 | Ievgeniia KAZBEKOVA | UKR | 2 | 6 | 65,5% |
5 | Zhilu LUO | CHN | 1 | 7 | 63,2% |
6 | Camilla MORONI | ITA | 2 | 9 | 58,4% |
7 | Lucia DÖRFFEL | GER | 2 | 10 | 56,5% |
8 | Jain KIM | KOR | 2 | 11 | 50,8% |
9 | Molly THOMPSON-SMITH | GBR | 2 | 13 | 50,1% |
10 | Miho NONAKA | JPN | 1 | 4 | 45,1% |
11 | Franziska STERRER | AUT | 1 | 16 | 43,6% |
12 | Laura ROGORA | ITA | 2 | 17 | 40,8% |
13 | Zélia AVEZOU | FRA | 1 | 8 | 40,4% |
14 | Mia KRAMPL | SLO | 1 | 12 | 39,8% |
15 | Futaba ITO | JPN | 1 | 5 | 38,9% |
16 | Michaela SMETANOVA | CZE | 2 | 22 | 30,5% |
17 | Stasa GEJO | SRB | 2 | 23 | 28,3% |
18 | Lucija TARKUS | SLO | 1 | 18 | 24,3% |
19 | Chloe CAULIER | BEL | 2 | 25 | 24,0% |
20 | Manon HILY | FRA | 1 | 15 | 22,7% |
21 | Hannah MEUL | GER | 2 | 27 | 19,5% |
22 | Maya STASIUK | AUS | 1 | 28 | 17,6% |
23 | Petra KLINGLER | SUI | 2 | 29 | 15,7% |
24 | Fanny GIBERT | FRA | 1 | 19 | 15,4% |
25 | Yejoo SEO | KOR | 2 | 26 | 15,2% |
26 | Elnaz REKABI | IRI | 2 | 30 | 13,8% |
27 | Vita LUKAN | SLO | 1 | 24 | 13,1% |
28 | Hélène JANICOT | FRA | 1 | 21 | 12,5% |
29 | Anastasia SANDERS | USA | 1 | 14 | 12,4% |
30 | Ryu NAKAGAWA | JPN | 1 | 20 | 9,8% |
31 | Giorgia TESIO | ITA | 2 | 32 | 9,4% |
32 | Martina BURŠÍKOVÁ | SVK | 2 | 35 | 7,0% |
33 | Ayala KEREM | ISR | 2 | 36 | 6,1% |
34 | Sol SA | KOR | 2 | 34 | 5,1% |
35 | Maria AGUADO | ARG | 2 | 38 | 4,8% |
36 | Sandra HOPFENSITZ | GER | 2 | 39 | 4,0% |
37 | Sara COPAR | SLO | 1 | 33 | 3,8% |
38 | Aleksandra TOTKOVA | BUL | 2 | 42 | 3,7% |
39 | Tegwen OATES | RSA | 1 | 48 | 3,6% |
40 | Noa SHIRAN | ISR | 2 | 43 | 3,6% |
41 | Eliska ADAMOVSKA | CZE | 2 | 46 | 3,6% |
42 | Lynn VAN DER MEER | NED | 2 | 40 | 3,6% |
43 | Svana BJARNASON | ISL | 2 | 47 | 3,6% |
44 | Alannah YIP | CAN | 2 | 41 | 3,6% |
45 | Roxana WIENAND | GER | 2 | 45 | 3,5% |
46 | Kylie CULLEN | USA | 1 | 31 | 1,0% |
47 | Nonoha KUME | JPN | 1 | 44 | 0,4% |
48 | Kyra CONDIE | USA | 1 | 37 | 0,3% |
Probability of Countries Qualifying for the Olympics
Country | Country Probability | One Climber | Two Climbers | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Argentina | 4,8% | 4,8% | 0,0% | ||
Australia | 17,7% | 17,7% | 0,0% | * | |
Austria | 43,6% | 43,6% | 0,0% | * | |
Belgium | 24,0% | 24,0% | 0,0% | ||
Bulgaria | 3,6% | 3,6% | 0,0% | ||
Canada | 3,6% | 3,6% | 0,0% | ||
China | 63,2% | 63,2% | 0,0% | * | |
Czechia | 33,2% | 32,2% | 0,9% | ||
France | 91,1% | 91,1% | 0,0% | * | |
Great Britain | 92,6% | 52,3% | 40,3% | ||
Germany | 69,2% | 54,9% | 14,3% | ||
Iran | 13,8% | 13,8% | 0,0% | ||
Iceland | 3,6% | 3,6% | 0,0% | ||
Israel | 9,6% | 9,5% | 0,1% | ||
Italy | 80,2% | 51,7% | 28,4% | ||
Japan | 94,2% | 94,2% | 0,0% | * | |
South Korea | 98,7% | 34,1% | 64,6% | ||
Netherlands | 3,6% | 3,6% | 0,0% | ||
South Africa | 3,6% | 3,6% | 0,0% | * | |
Slovenia | 80,9% | 80,9% | 0,0% | * | |
Serbia | 28,3% | 28,3% | 0,0% | ||
Switzerland | 15,7% | 15,7% | 0,0% | ||
Slovakia | 7,0% | 7,0% | 0,0% | ||
Ukraine | 65,5% | 65,5% | 0,0% | ||
United States | 99,9% | 99,9% | 0,0% | * |
* already qualified one athlete previously
Speed
For the Speed there are 7 remaining spaces (14 total, 2 were awarded at the World Championships and 5 at the Continental Qualifiers). French men already used the Host Country Place, but women’s is still for grabs (they have to be 24th or better). There are no eligible athletes for universality place.
Men
# | Name | NOC | Quota | Shanghai rank | Probability |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Yaroslav TKACH | UKR | 2 | 4 | 69,3% |
2 | Veddriq LEONARDO | INA | 1 | 1 | 69,1% |
3 | Reza ALIPOUR SHENAZANDIFARD | IRI | 2 | 6 | 59,2% |
4 | Zachary HAMMER | USA | 1 | 7 | 54,5% |
5 | Peng WU | CHN | 1 | 2 | 49,9% |
6 | Amir MAIMURATOV | KAZ | 2 | 11 | 42,4% |
7 | Euncheol SHIN | KOR | 2 | 12 | 39,0% |
8 | Xinshang WANG | CHN | 1 | 3 | 32,6% |
9 | Ryo OMASA | JPN | 2 | 14 | 32,3% |
10 | Erik NOYA CARDONA | ESP | 2 | 15 | 29,0% |
11 | Hryhorii ILCHYSHYN | UKR | 2 | 16 | 25,8% |
12 | Guillaume MORO | FRA | 1 | 17 | 21,9% |
13 | Carlos GRANJA LOPEZ | ECU | 2 | 18 | 19,9% |
14 | Gian Luca ZODDA | ITA | 1 | 19 | 15,9% |
15 | Kiromal KATIBIN | INA | 1 | 5 | 14,2% |
16 | Ludovico FOSSALI | ITA | 1 | 20 | 13,8% |
17 | Sebastian LUCKE | GER | 2 | 21 | 13,0% |
18 | Leander CARMANNS | GER | 2 | 22 | 11,4% |
19 | Jianguo LONG | CHN | 1 | 9 | 10,5% |
20 | Isaac ESTEVEZ VALLEJO | ECU | 2 | 23 | 10,0% |
21 | Aspar ASPAR | INA | 1 | 8 | 9,4% |
22 | Pierre REBREYEND | FRA | 1 | 24 | 8,0% |
23 | Marcin DZIENSKI | POL | 2 | 25 | 7,8% |
24 | Raharjati NURSAMSA | INA | 1 | 10 | 7,0% |
25 | Yongjun JUNG | KOR | 2 | 26 | 6,8% |
26 | Liang ZHANG | CHN | 1 | 13 | 5,9% |
27 | Alessandro BOULOS | ITA | 1 | 28 | 4,6% |
28 | Jun YASUKAWA | JPN | 2 | 29 | 4,6% |
29 | Hayden BARTON | AUS | 2 | 30 | 3,9% |
30 | Noah BRATSCHI | USA | 1 | 27 | 3,8% |
31 | Rishat KHAIBULLIN | KAZ | 2 | 32 | 2,7% |
32 | John BROSLER | USA | 1 | 31 | 1,9% |
Probability of Countries Qualifying for the Olympics
Country | Country Probability | One Climber | Two Climbers | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Australia | 3,9% | 3,9% | 0,0% | ||
China | 98,9% | 98,9% | 0,0% | * | |
Ecuador | 28,4% | 26,9% | 1,5% | ||
Spain | 29,0% | 29,0% | 0,0% | ||
France | 29,9% | 29,9% | 0,0% | * | |
Germany | 23,4% | 22,4% | 1,0% | ||
Indonesia | 99,8% | 99,8% | 0,0% | * | |
Iran | 59,2% | 59,2% | 0,0% | ||
Italy | 34,2% | 34,2% | 0,0% | * | |
Japan | 35,6% | 34,4% | 1,2% | ||
Kazakhstan | 44,1% | 43,1% | 0,9% | ||
South Korea | 43,6% | 41,4% | 2,2% | ||
Poland | 7,8% | 7,8% | 0,0% | ||
Ukraine | 78,7% | 62,4% | 16,4% | ||
United States | 60,1% | 60,1% | 0,0% | * |
* already qualified one athlete previously
Women
# | Name | NOC | Quota | Shanghai rank | Probability |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Yafei ZHOU | CHN | 2 | 1 | 89,6% |
2 | Rajiah SALLSABILLAH | INA | 1 | 2 | 66,6% |
3 | Natalia KALUCKA | POL | 1 | 3 | 53,6% |
4 | Jimin JEONG | KOR | 2 | 6 | 51,7% |
5 | Capucine VIGLIONE | FRA | 2 | 7 | 47,7% |
6 | Di NIU | CHN | 2 | 4 | 47,2% |
7 | Beatrice COLLI | ITA | 2 | 11 | 34,8% |
8 | Aleksandra KALUCKA | POL | 1 | 5 | 31,7% |
9 | Leslie Adriana ROMERO PÉREZ | ESP | 2 | 12 | 31,4% |
10 | Shengyan WANG | CHN | 2 | 9 | 25,4% |
11 | Lison GAUTRON | FRA | 2 | 14 | 24,1% |
12 | Shaoqin ZHANG | CHN | 2 | 10 | 22,5% |
13 | Manon LEBON | FRA | 2 | 15 | 21,1% |
14 | Giulia RANDI | ITA | 2 | 16 | 19,1% |
15 | Narda Mutia AMANDA | INA | 1 | 8 | 18,0% |
16 | Franziska RITTER | GER | 2 | 17 | 16,6% |
17 | Carla MARTÍNEZ VIDAL | ESP | 2 | 18 | 14,4% |
18 | Andrea ROJAS TELLO | ECU | 2 | 19 | 12,5% |
19 | Mahya DARABIAN | IRI | 2 | 20 | 10,9% |
20 | Nurul IQAMAH | INA | 1 | 13 | 8,9% |
21 | Tamara ULZHABAYEVA | KAZ | 2 | 22 | 8,5% |
22 | Victoire ANDRIER | FRA | 2 | 23 | 7,1% |
23 | Karin HAYASHI | JPN | 2 | 24 | 6,6% |
24 | Hanareum SUNG | KOR | 2 | 25 | 5,8% |
25 | Ai TAKEUCHI | JPN | 2 | 26 | 5,1% |
26 | Heeju NOH | KOR | 2 | 27 | 4,4% |
27 | Fumika KAWAKAMI | JPN | 2 | 28 | 3,7% |
28 | Anna BROZEK | POL | 1 | 21 | 3,2% |
29 | Natsumi HAYASHI | JPN | 2 | 29 | 3,1% |
30 | Grace CROWLEY | AUS | 2 | 30 | 2,6% |
31 | Tegwen OATES | RSA | 1 | 31 | 2,0% |
32 | Patrycja CHUDZIAK | POL | 1 | 32 | 0,2% |
Probability of Countries Qualifying for the Olympics
Country | Country Probability | One Climber | Two Climbers | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Australia | 2,5% | 2,5% | 0,0% | ||
China | 99,7% | 14,7% | 85,0% | * | |
Ecuador | 12,5% | 12,5% | 0,0% | ||
Spain | 42,3% | 38,9% | 3,5% | ||
France | 75,9% | 51,9% | 24,1% | ||
Germany | 16,6% | 16,6% | 0,0% | ||
Indonesia | 93,5% | 93,5% | 0,0% | * | |
Iran | 10,9% | 10,9% | 0,0% | ||
Italy | 48,7% | 43,5% | 5,2% | ||
Japan | 18,0% | 17,5% | 0,5% | ||
Kazakhstan | 8,5% | 8,5% | 0,0% | ||
South Korea | 57,4% | 52,9% | 4,5% | ||
Poland | 88,7% | 88,7% | 0,0% | * | |
South Africa | 2,0% | 2,0% | 0,0% | * |
* already qualified one athlete previously